Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
