Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
